Puka Nacua is trending towards the top-24 PPR WR mark in my rankings after digging into the matchup a bit more.
Just moved him ahead of Garrett Wilson.
This is the range he currently falls in for me:
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The 49ers use a zone-heavy coverage scheme that keeps everything in front of them (7th lowest opponent aDOT in 2022).
Specifically, SF uses a ton of Cover-4 and Cover-3.
Check out Matthew Stafford's target distribution in Week 1 vs those schemes:
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Puka Nacua is the zone-beater. He led the team in both hitch and slant routes run in Week 1.
A cool note from
@fball_insights
on how Matthew Stafford distributed targets vs. two-high safety looks in Week 1 ⤵️
49ers were 10th in two-high rate in Week 1.
Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell both had a 33% first read share against single-high coverage in Week 1.
Against two-high looks:
Nacua: 0.47 TPRR / 63% FR share
Atwell: 0.13 TPRR / 25% FR share
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Week 2 vs. SF feels like a spot where the offense will again flow through Puka Nacua.
Nacua was Matthew Stafford's first read 43% of the time in Week 1. Only four players ranked higher.
Ohhhh baby, the updated
@FantasyPtsData
Suite first-read rates are in, and they are HOT!
📢PUKA NACUA SZN IS UPON US!
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The Rams are only implied for 18.25 points.
Three teams have a lower total:
- Arizona
- Washington
- NYJ
Pass-heavy game plan likely for LAR, but it won’t matter if they can’t move the chains.
It took a bit of heroism from Stafford to move the chains in an easier matchup ⬇️
The Rams’ run game showed necessary variety (hello, gap scheme) but is still a work in progress and they set up their own bad second downs. Stafford solved them and then some.
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Puka Nacua has the potential for 10-15 targets again if the Rams can move the ball.
We can’t assume anything with an 18.25 point total, but I do expect the offense to center around Nacua with both Tyler Higbee and Kyren Williams likely to soak up more underneath looks.
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To everybody who got mad about this, I do apologize. I undershot it.
How’s 20 targets?
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Week 2 rankings are live on
@SportsLine
!
📈 Zay Flowers, Brandon Aiyuk, Calvin Ridley, Nico Collins, Zack Moss, Sean Tucker, Zach Ertz, Puka Nacua
📉 Garrett Wilson, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Van Jefferson, Najee Harris, Dalvin Cook
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@jagibbs_23
Now ask yourself if you would accept Puke Nukem for Garrett wilson straight up if u had wilson. Anything for clicks right
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@cuteturkaktas
That's an entirely different discussion than who to start in Week 2.
Wilson coming off super discouraging usage, with Zach Wilson at QB, in a matchup against a Dallas defense that just shut out the Giants -or- Puka Nacua operating as a potential offensive centerpiece again?
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@jagibbs_23
I hope Garrett Wilson shoves it up these rankings, people clamoring for him to be a first rd pick , and their jumping ship after a week,
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@Cash_Michael20
It has nothing to do with Garrett Wilson and 100% — everything, absolutely everything to do with Zach Wilson.
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This was meant to be a thread about Puka Nacua being a viable Week 2 start bc of specific types of coverage that SF plays.
Instead it turned into Puka Nacua>Garrett Wilson, which is of course ridiculous since no one is as good as Nacua so why would that have ever been the point?
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