Founder, Software Analyst Cyber Research | Tweets on Cybersecurity & AI/ML | Catholic. Distance Runner. | Ex Cyber Research
@contrary
@Contrary_Res
, Ex AI PM.
Excited news!
Pumped to share that I've opened up enrollment for my summer cybersecurity bootcamp in July! Once every few months, I enjoy returning to the drawing board and aggregating all my research into one centralized and comprehensive bootcamp.
The program dives deep into
Saul Rosenthal: A great who from 1989-2007 averaged 32% returns compared to the market’s 12%.
Now lives off his portfolio, a few advice based on excerpts from an article 5-years ago:
Saul is my 2021 Investor of the year.
I have studied many successful fund managers this year but nobody beats the success of him.
He has averaged over 32%+ CAGR for over 28 years and 6x'd his portfolio returns.
This is Thread Pt. 2 of where I dig deeper into his framework:
I went down a rabbit hole digging into one of the most successful and secretive hedge funds: Coatue Global Mgmt.
+ 483% since June 2013 with a 50% annualized return.
+ Top 1% of Tech L/S Hedge Funds
+ One of the most successful Tiger Cubs.
A thread on some interesting findings:
Cybersecurity is one of the fastest growing tech sectors today as a result of Cyberattacks increasing 2300% over the past few years!
This critical industry can be complex to fully understand it all.
In this thread, I'll breakdown the entire cybersecurity industry into steps:
This is a comprehensive thread on the Buy-Now-Pay-Later Trend.
Why have the World's Largest Retailers chosen Affirm's BNPL solution instead of building their solution in-house?
This thread explores $AFRM's Competitive Advantage and the current Credit Card disruption:
An Investor and Founder-Led Portfolio made up of the PayPal Mafia will likely crush it again by 2030:
Public Portfolio:
• $PLTR
• $TSLA
• $AFRM
• $SQ
• $UBER
• $PINS
• $PYPL
Private Portfolio:
• Stripe
• Reddit
• OpenAI
• SpaceX
• Boring Company
Mind-blowing! [1/4]
The entire cybersecurity landscape:
I'm working on a deep-dive report that delves into the cybersecurity ecosystem.
Security is my top pick in 2022. This is a sneak peek, so stay tuned for it next week.
$CRWD $NET $S $FTNT $OKTA $ZS $PANW.
@DennisHong17
grew his fund from $10M+ to $1.5B in about 6-years
He has some incredible returns. I just absorbed lessons about his philosophies.
Here are his 10 most important Investing principles that led to his success:
[$PLTR] This is a running thread library for all my research on Palantir Technologies.
I've written over 50K+ words studying $PLTR this year alone. This is my plan of organizing everything into a meta thread:
The Rising Challenge of SentinelOne:
$CRWD is the undoubted leader of the endpoint cybersecurity market. However, there is a very compelling thesis for $S - SentinelOne.
I'll outline my research notes in this full thread (and an upcoming Spaces!):
The latest
@BatteryVentures
report on Cloud software valuations is out.
It's stunning to see how software valuations have compressed over the past 10-months (chart annotated below)
Some other interesting findings below: 1/13
Major Technology Trends based on Executives & Venture Money published by Mckinsey Today: *Read the full below
I'm long & bullish:
1. $PLTR (Applied AI, ML)
2. $PATH (Next-Gen Automation)
3. $CRWD (Cyber-risk)
4. $ZS & $NET (Trust Architecture)
We're still in early innings!
Good tech writers are few and far between.
I talk to tech-focused funds and VCs weekly about software trends.
I noticed these were the highest quality blogs and publications many of them read:
A thread on the most disruptive companies and emerging technologies in Cybersecurity.
The emergence of cloud computing is changing the cybersecurity domain. The next 10-yrs of security will look different from the last 5-years.
I'll break it down in this thread:
This is a phenomenal breakdown of today's Enterprise AI/ML stack (S/O:
@BatteryVentures
).
I'm constructive on the tailwinds within this space and I'm long: $CFLT, $CRWD, $AMPL, $PLTR.
The report below is a great read for any AI & Enterprise SaaS Enthusiast.
Thread Summary: 1/
Just finished a long read on cybercrime. I can confidently say that Cybersecurity is going to be one of the best R/R Investment sectors for the nxt decade.
$CRWD $S $ZS $PANW $FTNT $SAIL $SUMO $NET
It feels obvious but we'll be surprised when we look back!
Palo Alto Networks has built the world's largest cybersecurity company. However, its story remains untold.
@rak_garg
& I spent the last few months dissecting the rise of $PANW as it races to become the first $100B security company.
Here is a summary of our thesis and report:
Top Alternative Data for Investors
@AznWeng
and myself collaborated to identify the Top 12 Non-financial metrics and datasets retail investors can use to gain an edge.
In this thread, we break it all down:
Confluent: The Central Nervous System that is empowering Data in Motion for the Leading Corporations.
Why Confluent could become as dominant as Snowflake as a leading Open-Source Data Infrastructure.
This is my long-awaited $CFLT Investment Thesis:
First-time interesting stat from Microsoft's Security VP's on Bloomberg.
+ $MSFT has over 650K customers, growing ~ 50% YoY (Amazing!)
+ $CRWD w/ 16K Customers ~ 75% YoY
+ $S w/ 6K Customers ~ 79% YoY
There's so much room for $CRWD & $S to take share from Symantec/McAfee/TM.
UI Path: A company on a mission to fully automate the modern enterprise and take away your jobs.
This is a thread that breaks down everything about $PATH's business.
What truly makes them unique? - I'll cover both the Bull and Bear Case and everything you need to know here:
I can't time the bottom, but I know Software multiples are at the healthiest we've ever seen in a while.
I've been buying all week. Largest buys: $DDOG (x2), $S, $SNOW, $GTLB Picked up more $NET, $CFLT. Not Advice, but just my bets on the future of Ent. SaaS.
Today, we published our in-depth report comparing Snowflake vs. Databricks.
The report covers everything you need to know about both companies from a product roadmap perspective, GTM, financial metrics to their strategies for winning the data stack: 1/4
Primer on How Investors can build an AI Portfolio to capture the $13T Opportunity from Artificial Intelligence by 2030.
Mega Thread //
• A Framework for evaluating AI Companies
• Top Companies that will continue to dominate
• First Principles basics on AI
Let's Review⬇️🧵
Snowflake's Q2 2022 earnings report had many surprises that caught many off guard!
Beyond the headline metrics, the devil was in the details, with lots to unpack.
I've taken the time to review the report in-depth; here are the most important takeaways for Investors:
$SNOW
1/
My deep-dive goes in-depth exploring $AFRM's 10 Competitive Moats and durability in BNPL:
• Investment Thesis,
• Business model,
• Financial metrics,
• Future growth catalysts.
The last time I went this deep was on Cloudflare.
Hope it's valuable!
Pleased to share my full deep dive on SASE!
It provides a breakdown of everything you need to know on SASE & an in-depth review of the players to watch.
Some include:
- Zscaler
- Cloudflare
- Palo Alto N
- 12+ vendors which I cover
Here is the full report and key highlights:
$PLTR's newly launched Apollo for Edge AI just expanded their TAM & is going to be a huge.
The first thing
@ssankar
spoke about on the Q1 ER call was their delight on Apollo going Live.
After studying $NET & $FSLY, I've connected the dots.
Here are the reasons this is big news:
I made a tough decision.
I broke my rule and exited $NET - a core portfolio name that was a
#neversell
.
However, here is the full rationale behind my decision:
$GOOGL mindblowing stats:
+ There are close to 800M to 2B people in the world who use either Google Sheets or Excel.
+ G-Suite is used by approximately 2B users every month.
+ Google Docs has over 2B active monthly users.
Talk about a moat and the greatest consumer product ever
Just looking at $ARKK Top holdings:
$TSLA $ROKU $TDOC $ZM $COIN $TWLO $SHOP $SPOT.
Many are quite cheap. No reason why a portfolio with these companies cannot return a 20%+ CAGR over the next 5-yrs?
I finally exited $UPST this week. The final call was reviewing $LC's result - I underestimated the impact of originations and delinquencies in Fintech.
I restarted $NET which is *expensive* and exited $UPST which was *cheap*.
This thread explain my decision-making process: 1🧵
Snowflake just announced FY Results.
The results were mixed. Some positives for the long-term and some bitter pills for the short-term including comments that justify a -18% stock decline.
I'll lay out the pros, cons and summary in this $SNOW Thread: 1/
Interesting stat from Crowdstrike.
There are 26 software companies w/ $2B in revenue.
Only 2 companies amongst this cohort are still growing 50% year-over-year.
Crowdstrike and Snowflake. Pretty impressive.
$FUTU vs $TIGR - MEGA THREAD Summary:
• What are the differences vs similarities btw both companies?
• 🚨Revenue Growth rates over 281% & 152% respectively
• What are the risks of Investing? Can we trust both?
• $FUTU Earnings Recap
• Are they worth it?
Biz Thread below👇
Over the past year, I've spent lots of time on the cybersecurity ecosystem.
There is evidence to suggest Cybersecurity will be one of the strongest software sectors that emerges post this bear market.
These are a few data points that back up my thesis: 1/
SoFi & Galileo are building an impenetrable moat within Fintech.
After spending the past month studying Fintech trends and SoFi's recent Q1 results, here are my findings.
10 reasons why both companies are well positioned to capture a major share amongst giants like $SQ & $PYPL
Affirm's Competitive Position in a Nutshell:
My acronym is simply = Tech + Data + Risk + Brand + Talent
These are my notes from a recent talk I gave to an audience on $AFRM.
How To Analytically Assess An Earnings Report.
Outline of this Thread - What To Do:
• Pre & Post Earnings
• During the Earnings Call
• Key Metrics to track
• The Psychology
Earning can be a merging of multiple expectations (h/t
@jackbutcher
)
A Comprehensive guide below:🧵
Pleased to unveil this cybersecurity ecosystem map!
After 100+ hrs of meeting w/ experts, I created this deep-dive framework for operators / investors who want to learn about cybersecurity.
I disagree w/ many frameworks used today. We need to go back to basics.
Let's dive in!
Monday vs Asana: Introducing the rise of Enterprise Productivity and Collaboration software.
Exploring some of the fastest growing aspects of the market: $MSFT $MNDY $ASAN $SMAR.
This thread breaks down the differences btw both businesses and the Investment Thesis: Thread//
Crowdstrike and SentinelOne used to be serial competitors.
However, I'd argue that this macro env. has further drifted them apart.
Below are some quick notes from their recent earnings, but I want to go into more depth on the factors leading to this divergence in this thread:
According to Gartner, SASE is going to be one of the most important technologies for the next decade.
If firewalls defined the last era of security companies, SASE will be the next battleground.
The tech is complex, but this thread aims to provide a simplified breakdown (Pt 1)
Investing Principles
12 important lessons about the stock market that has consistently distinguished Top Investors vs Average Investors.
One lesson and One FinTwit Example.
Here is a Thread:
(Pic h/t
@visualizevalue
)
There is an Emergence of Canadian Tech Companies beyond these leaders:
$SHOP (eCommerce)
$LSPD (Payments)
$DCBO (Enterprise Learning)
$MAGT.TO (Security)
$NVEI (Cross-border Payments)
A Briefing thread on the Canadian tech ecosystem and funnel:
Notable High-Quality Newsletters:
I asked Investors a few weeks ago to tell me their best-underfollowed newsletters amongst low-key Accounts.
Here are the Top 17 noteworthy ones I found in my research:
It's absurd: Microsoft dominates the security industry.
Everyone knows Microsoft Security generates $20B as the largest tech company offering security services.
However, few know about the pieces that make up the business.
After some digging, I was surprised with my findings:
$PLTR - Palantir's COO,
@ssankar
is one of the smartest executives in tech and rarely gives press interviews.
When he does, I listen. He gave one yesterday.
Here are 5-key takeaways from the interview with regard to Palantir's Future:
1/5
Software metrics can be a struggle for new SaaS investors.
Wanted to review these 5 basic software terms and discuss their differences:
1) TCV & ACV
2) RPO
3) Bookings
4) Billings
5) Deferred revenue
Including how companies like $SNOW $PANW & $ZS $FTNT use them: 🧵
The most interesting cybersecurity companies that could go public in H2 2022 or early 2023:
• Snyk
• Netskope
• Illumio
• Lacework
• Orca
• Tanium
• Cybereason
• Exabeam
If you thought $NET, $ZS, $CRWD were cool, jst wait till you see the metrics & tech behind this list
$PLTR Palantir Technologies announced FY results – Stock is🔻12%
Below are $PLTR Full Earnings + Year Review/Takeaways after the Conference call:
+ Why Q4- looked weaker than expected
+ Why I’ll be buying more shares
+ This week's volatility
Review Thread & hope it helps:👇
My Top 7 Investment Industries for the future are simply:
1. Data Science/AI/ML Platforms
2. Marketplaces (Content creator & Passion Economy)
3. Fintech (BNPL)
4. Process Automation
5. Cloud/SaaS Transition
6. Cybersecurity
7. The rise of South E-Asia.
A quick multi-thread on the importance of Economic Moats and How to Evaluate them when studying businesses:
Pat Dorsey is one of the leading figures that breakdown this topic succinctly.
First, Why Moats Matter (1/6)
Distribution > Product
An exploration into why $BILL remains one of the highest valued and fastest-growing Fintech/SaaS companies.
I'll try to explain what makes this 'boring' company's distribution unique, crack at the reason for its premium Val. and my thesis in this thread:
Nuvei Corp: An underappreciated growth, disrupting the Fintech & Payments space to watch in 2021! 🔥
The next $SHOP + $LSPD?
$NVEI became the largest technology IPO in Canadian history on the Toronto Stk Exchange this year. Why?
Let’s explore in the visual-thread below 👇👇
$SNOW's customer base is growing 50% and those custs. are over 73% more every year!
If it takes the avg. customer >200+ days to get up/running with $SNOW - what is the likelihood that cust. churns quickly? what's the LTV of that cust. base over multiple yrs?
Incredible. 1/3
By 2025, 65% of enterprises will have implemented a SASE component (up from 15% in 2021).
I want to highlight the differences between the top players competing in SASE - primarily $ZS, $NET and $PANW based on my research with experts:
Fun-fact: $SNOW has had over 15 straight quarters of triple-digit growth!
They scaled revenue from <$40M Revenue in 2018/19 to now >$1.2Billion Revs. all within two years under the mercenary reign of Slootman.
Yet some ppl expect this to be up for a discount! Lol😁
Comprehensive Review on Fastly vs Cloudflare Analysis.
My curiosity into delivery & edge networks led me to spend a 3-week period trying to find out the truth of what truly differentiates these platforms.
Here are my findings - but first, a quick thread:
@saxena_puru
Yes, she is fascinating! The next Warren Buffet for innovative tech investing!
I just finished watching this exclusive interview today on Bloomberg:
Finally - A starter in $DDOG!
• Top 1% of SaaS and king of the rule of 40
• Most efficient SaaS Co.
• Epitome of land and expand
• Developer focused, Founder-led
+ Next tranche is set for $130's
I could go on forever on $DDOG, I’ve discussed this one in the past below...
Okta's Business at work 2021 report:
Okta has a unique way of tracking the fastest-growing apps globally. This report has produced some big winners in the past like $ZM, $DDOG.
Interestingly, this year we have $AMZN, $MNDY, and $SNOW.
$AMD had a blowout🔥
+Q4 Rev: 49% YoY
+Wrapped up FY 2021: 68% YoY
+Q1 22 Guide: Gonna hit 50% YoY
+FY 2022 Guide: 31% YoY *Way above* Street est of 19%
+FCF of $3.2B(!!)
+Best-ever GM Qtr!
+ Xilinx✅
She justified my reason for a 35% Port. 2 overweight. Thank you step-mom🧡
The paradox of Investing.
You're better off focusing on the long-term outcome because the faster you want to make money in the markets, the more likely you are to lose it faster.
New SaaS investors often struggle with software metrics.
I want to tackle 5 key terms and their differences every SaaS investor should know:
1. TCV vs ACV
2. RPO
3. Bookings
4. Billings
5. Deferred revenue
I'll use examples from companies like $SNOW, $PANW, $ZS, & $FTNT:
$UPST FULL Thread on Upstart Holdings - Up 47%!😯
Why I've been bullish on this leader in AI disrupting the Trillion-dollar Consumer Lending Market!
✅What is so special?
✅What are the Competitive advantages?
✅ $LMND of Lending?
Let's explore in this deep thread👇👇
Taking Druckenmiller's approach, if you had to go 5⃣stocks for 5⃣years, what would you hold? No F̶A̶A̶N̶G̶M̶
☁️🔐 : $NET
💻🎮 : $NVDA
🏦💸 : $SQ
📦🕹🇸🇬 : $SE
☁️📱📟 : $TWLO
Honorable mention - ⚡️🏎️ : $TSLA
*to early to pick 🧬
Feels like the biggest lesson of this era:
In bear markets, be willing to pay more for subscription SaaS models. $NOW $WDAY $CRM
In bull markets, be willing to pay more for usage/consumption-based models. $SNOW, $DDOG $SPLK
Know what environment you're in. Never mix the two up
This is Snowflake's dollar-based Net Retention Growth Rate Acceleration over the last 7-Qtrs!
• 158%
• 162%
• 168%
• 168%
• 169%
• 173%
• 178% (Now).
This is their highest level since 2019. Wild Numbers! $SNOW
Love this depiction of a data lake vs Data warehouse. Similar to Databricks vs. $SNOW
Data warehouses support transactional reporting and analytics on historical data, while data lakes support ML/AI use cases and real-time analysis.
The lines btw both has blurred in recent yrs.
Completed my half-marathon this weekend. Felt good to do something hard.
Time: 1.54, not close to my PB (1.48) but felt great to challenge myself mentally before a big week for me (soon).
(First ever public photo on Twitter).
Software investors need to rmbr enterprise cybersecurity will be the most defensible against IT budget cuts especially as discussions about hiring freezes continue to rage in tech.
$CRWD, $FTNT, $DDOG, $NET, $S & $ZS.
h/t Morgan Stanley.
Crowdstrike recently hosted a couple of Investor briefings that provided lots of insights into their business, market opportunity and competition against $MSFT.
This is a detailed overview of the key takeaways on where they're headed next and my commentary on it:
4/4 Final:
Fantastic piece! Source:
I just recently learned about Saul - does anyone here know him or heard about his style?
Anyways, some great advice from him!
$FB's Oculus is a truly decent product.
Just spent sometime tonight immersed in the product and I get the hype now.
As cost declines, I could see these having legs over the nxt few yrs. I won't underestimate Meta.
$PLTR -
"I don't think people understand how advanced Palantir is technologically and the potential of their edge platform. How they can take away market share from the centralized providers like AWS or Azure." - Cathie Wood
Great video by
@PalantirVision
The PA:
P1 (Core): $CRWD, $PLTR, $UPWK, $UPST $AFRM $CFLT $AMPL * $DLO * $S
P2: (Mgmd) $AMD $SE $AMBA $SI $GDYN $BILL $MNDY $ZS $DDOG
Company updates, Commentary, and a general recap of the past 30-days:
$FSLY is cheap.
At EV/S of 14x, $FSLY trades as a value stock. Why?
After spending a week carefully analyzing the company's tech and their report. There are metrics the headlines won't tell you.
Here are 10 reasons why I think $FSLY could offer a deal for long-term Investors:
There are 30,000+ SaaS companies.
Only 26 have ever reached $2B in revenue.
Only 2 in this cohort have grown 50% at this scale over the past few years.
Crowdstrike and Snowflake.
Both are still expected to grow 30% next year @ $3 billion!
Just phenomenal. Shows that winners
$PLTR is becoming fully commercialized!
Strong client growth YoY and QoQ
+ 20+ Net new customers
+ 925M contract value
+ Average revenue from the top 20 customers: $39M (this is huge!)
+ Average revenue per customer: $7.9M
Nobody can say that Palantir is exclusively for Govt
This is a good piece for understanding the intricacies of software FCF versus non-software companies using $DDOG. Very thoughtful piece by
@BreakingSaaS
.
Initial ER reactions:
+ $DDOG: My standout✨. Solid Ops leverage + growth against tough comps.
+ $NET: Business as usual, -vFCF is seasonal.
+ $CFLT: Decels kicking-in, but not bad.
+ $BILL: Some softness (devil in da details), so I get the -20% haircut. Lots of pull-forward.
Just heard $PANW's CEO say they have around a 3.5% market share in the security market. Wow, 3!
Said they only improved from 1.5% in 2018. This is despite being the largest player w/ over $5B Rev!
Tells you everything you need to know about cybersecurity.
Looking forward to 2022 for the new crop of Cybersecurity Companies that decide to IPO!
Snyk, Netskope, and 1-Password appear to be the highest-potential Co's, but keep this list below handy for the next crop of $CRWD, $NET, $OKTA & $S :)