2. In November, AB Ministry of Environment & Protected Areas said river flows and reservoir levels were ~50% of normal and that “spring water levels are expected to be dire.” They will “plan for extreme drought and hope for rain/snow.”

3. We will come back to ‘Hope for rain’ as a strategy while ignoring climate change, but worth noting that in that same presentation, the government is already ordering some users to stop withdrawing water.

4. El Nino years tend to have very low snowfall levels, so not much water for Spring melt. El Nino’s occur regularly but last year’s incredible heat & dryness means reservoirs (that'd normally tide us through a dry year) are already depleted. That’s climate change playing out…

5. On Dec 12 (while Premier & Environment Minister were busy blasting feds over methane regs designed to limit future warming / drought), @AER told oil & gas companies it regulates to prepare contingency plans in the event that they can’t withdraw water

@aer 6. O&G companies have been expecting this kind of warning (though we can expect the jostling for water rights to get nasty). They know that climate science has long been predicting more intense droughts in the Prairies (punctuated by more extreme storms)

@aer 7. In its 2023 disclosure of climate-related risks to shareholders, CNRL estimated the risk of “Changing precipitation patterns and types” as “likely” & cost of not begin able to withdraw water as $27M/day to their oil sands facilities

@aer 8. To mitigate risk, CNRL built a reservoir to hold 28 days worth of water. Someone should ask them how confident they are re that reserve given recent events. Plus: lots of questions re allowable industrial withdrawals vs base flow levels req'd for healthy river ecosystem

@aer 9. The Alberta government, on the other hand, is in denial. The Nov AB govt drought presentation, AER bulletin & AB gov webpage on drought management are all silent on the link between climate change & drought. I'd love for someone to find somewhere they make this link...

@aer 10. In her op ed “Taking Action on Drought”, AB Environment Minister Schulz doesn’t even mention climate change but ends with untended pathos: “We cannot make it rain or snow, but all of us have a role to play.”

@aer 11. In her relentless attacks on federal climate action & refusal to take significant action at home, @rebeccakschulz is doing her best to make it not rain or snow, worsening the outlook for agriculture, industry and raising the risk of another round of destructive wildfires.

@climatekeith @aer @rebeccakschulz No amount of punitive taxation is going to change the weather. Electricity and gasoline are not luxuries. This war on the poor is despicable. A conscientious person would be working hard to cheapen energy, then there would be money for all important environmental endeavours.

@climatekeith @aer @rebeccakschulz Past decisions have not reflected future risks well so now …. Hope is about all they have. But, will they now return to past decisions to prepare for the future??

@climatekeith @aer @rebeccakschulz Nice thread! Thx. Interesting info on how O&G companies are acknowledging the expected effects of climate change…on their bottom line. But they are happy to have the UCP there to lead the deflection effort to NOT acknowledge it - or join the country’s efforts to fight it.

@climatekeith @aer @rebeccakschulz Until they figure out the storage and capacity issues, solar and wind are only good for ~15% of the hours in a year. You can't expect the gas plants to operate at a loss in the summer and then have to make it up in the winter while they ALSO need to cover the missing capacity.

@climatekeith @aer @rebeccakschulz This government is failing us here, and their complete unwillingness to act for the good of sustaining our province is unconscionable

@climatekeith @aer @rebeccakschulz I keep hoping that if denialist jurisdictions like AB experience serious consequences they'll stop blocking action on climate. Not sure that will happen, Australia's still expanding coal after catastrophic wildfires. Maybe it takes a few blows for the lesson to be learned.

@climatekeith @aer @rebeccakschulz The right’s favourite pablum for the masses — thoughts & prayers

@climatekeith @aer @rebeccakschulz "God will provide'' shouldn't be govt policy.

@climatekeith @aer @rebeccakschulz Sure, hope is not a strategy. But have they tried thoughts and prayers? 😳🙄