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Andrew Small Profile
Andrew Small

@ajwsmall

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China Fellow at I.D.E.A. @EU_Commission On leave from @gmfus Book / info / previous writing:

Brussels (Berlin too...)
Joined February 2008
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
7 months
Personal news: I'm excited to start a secondment to the European Commission next week! I'll be taking up a fellowship at IDEA, the advisory hub that reports to the President of the European Commission, as part of a new program to tap external expertise on China-related issues 1/2
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
3 years
It was hard this week not to think back to the CAI drama in December, when Germany/France jammed the agreement through in the window before the Biden administration took office, taking advantage of Xi's interest in pre-emptively spiking US coalition-building on China 1/
@jakejsullivan
Jake Sullivan
3 years
The Biden-Harris administration would welcome early consultations with our European partners on our common concerns about China's economic practices.
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
4 years
"Sino-Indian relations can never go back to the old normal"
@CarnegieEndow
Carnegie Endowment
4 years
What does the clash at the China-India border mean for the countries' plans to disengage? How could the conflict impact the future of Chinese-Indian relations? Ashley J. Tellis explains:
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
1 year
Chinese officials in meetings with EU counterparts "made clear that the use of nuclear weapons by Russia would be viewed as totally unacceptable in Beijing". From the latest @noahbarkin newsletter (always a must-read but this one is a must-must-read...)
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
4 years
UK threatened with "retaliatory responses" from Beijing if Huawei is excluded, Chinese government views it as "a test stone of bilateral ties". China Daily editorial:
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
5 years
This is the best article out there on the current state of play with CPEC - and I hope part of moving people away from talking about it being a "$62bn initiative". The real numbers in play now are still significant but much less than that:
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
1 year
As soon as that Zhou Bo op-ed appeared - - I suspected that China had now figured out how to use the Russian threats of nuclear weapons use to its advantage, and Xi’s statement today exemplifies this 1/12
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
2 years
The fact that China clearly supports Russia would not preclude them taking a mediation role. Beijing typically does this precisely when it’s sympathetic to one side but thinks they’ve gone too far. But there are other reasons I doubt this will happen 1/
@bueti
Reinhard Bütikofer
2 years
It is highly questionable, indeed, how China could be mediating in a conflict in which they have taken a principal stance on the aggressor's side. Not a very good idea, @JosepBorrellF .
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
3 years
I can't post the full chapter from the book but a few disconnected snippets in this thread below capture the early China-Taliban interactions when they were last in power, and I hope provide some helpful context. Some of the central issues have not changed since. 1/4
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
2 years
Xi has made his bet - that given China’s strategic landscape, there is a price worth paying for the Sino-Russian partnership. No amount of articles on what various sections of the Chinese ”foreign policy community” think or what we think China’s “real” interests are obviate that
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
6 years
In light of US cutting off funds to Pakistan, the argument in this piece on China’s reaction still applies – Beijing will be more supportive than in the past, but contrary to some recent commentary, it will NOT be happy. Why? : 1/9
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
4 years
A few samples from the last 24 hours alone of how the Chinese COVID-19 propaganda in Europe and its instrumentalization by various EU-unfriendly actors (Orbán, Vučić et al) has catalyzed active and open pushback from European officials and politicians
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
3 years
Whatever schadenfreude China may be experiencing around the way the withdrawal from Afghanistan has been handled by the US, this is not the outcome that China wanted. I give context here: and here: 1/5
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
4 years
The Daily Telegraph "has stopped publishing paid-for propaganda on behalf of Chinese state media":
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
5 years
IMF managing director Christine Lagarde says IMF will require "absolute transparency" of Pakistan's debts, including those owed to China:
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
2 years
The messaging from various European governments to China on how it handles the crisis with Russia has sharpened up in the last few days, increasingly making it clear that it will have an impact on the relationship. Clearest was @ABaerbock yesterday: 1/8
@noahbarkin
Noah Barkin
2 years
If Russia violates international law by invading Ukraine and China looks the other way, Germany "cannot have normal relations" with Beijing @ABaerbock tells #MSC2020
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
7 years
"A fully loaded A380 will be able to land at Gwadar's new airport"
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
2 years
So this piece seriously doubles down on the "China didn't know Russia was going to invade" argument. As Yun Sun says, that would reflect some interesting things about the Xi-Putin relationship, Chinese intelligence etc. if true. But... 1/
@Lingling_Wei
Lingling Wei 魏玲灵
2 years
An intriguing q these days is whether China's Xi had been informed of Putin's invasion plan when the two issued Feb. 4 solidarity statement. “A careful examination of the events suggests that China was, in fact, played," wrote Yun Sun @StimsonCenter
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
1 year
Striking language from Xi in meeting with Pakistani PM: "expressed his great concern about the safety of Chinese nationals in Pakistan, and conveyed his hope that Pakistan will provide a reliable and safe environment for Chinese institutions and personnel"
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
4 years
This piece, "Inside Macron's Coronavirus War" has some striking snippets on China, both on the "operational necessity" to cooperate now given current dependencies, and the tangible irritation at Beijing's behavior through the crisis:
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
3 years
As expected, we are now starting to see big, round, perfect-for-headlines numbers appear on China investing in Afghanistan - $14 billion is a start but I'm sure we'll go higher than that once people really get going with this game:
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
6 years
China extends further financing support to Pakistan to stave off balance of payments crisis "in part because it does not want details made public about the loans it has made as part of CPEC":
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
4 years
We - @gmfus and @GeorgetownLaw - have a new report out today on CPEC and the BRI. A few summary points from it in this thread, along with some of the photos for anyone who just wants to look at them instead… 1/17
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
6 years
Pakistan turns down offer of cheaper-than-CPEC loans from Japan, "will not seek any more loans for infrastructure projects":
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
2 years
The price now looks higher than Xi had expected; it looks like a miscalculation to have leaned in so far. But it would also be damaging to walk that back now. And it is not being walked back (despite the periodic “China has shifted its position!” spurts of misplaced excitement)
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
4 years
Striking reasons laid out for Merkel's decision not to attend the G7, including "she did not want to be part of an anti-China display":
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
1 year
This encapsulates the dual benefits of China's relationship with Russia - Beijing can maintain every element of its partnership with Moscow while selling minor points of diplomatic differentiation to Europe that will have no material impact on the war: 1/4
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
7 years
Iranian official: Discussions on a rail-link between Chabahar and Gwadar are ongoing; we have already agreed they will be sister ports
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
1 year
Happy for the first chance to get my hands on a copy!
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
3 years
“the White House has been reluctant to meet quickly with a senior Chinese official... Mr. Biden has said he would meet first with allies to discuss issues including how to jointly confront China, what he calls a ‘united-front’ China policy. ‘We’re in no rush’”
@Lingling_Wei
Lingling Wei 魏玲灵
3 years
China is seeking a meeting of its top diplomat with senior Biden aides to explore a Xi/Biden summit. It plans to align discussions with Biden priorities such as pandemic and climate change. No more "we will buy more soybeans." With @bobdavis187 via @WSJ
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
3 years
Shi Yinhong is often good at distilling the thinking in Beijing on topics like this and I think does so again here on how the Chinese government views reassurances given by the Taliban:
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
6 years
This will go down really well in Beijing... Islamabad "considers that CPEC could only run in a smooth manner" if Pakistan can avoid an IMF bailout so China "will have to come forward to allocate special provisions for keeping Pakistan’s economy afloat":
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
1 year
"The French president also noted he had discussed the [China trip] with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Friday, saying the two shared “a common vision.” That vision: “Engage with China in order to put pressure on Russia.” (!) -
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
5 years
Pakistani minister alleges corruption in major CPEC project, eliciting this response from the Chinese company involved. As usual, the original criticism is directed at the PML-N, not the Chinese side, but this distinction is very hard to maintain:
@TalatHussain12
Syed Talat Hussain
5 years
After #MuradSaeed ’s and others’ wild allegations Chinese companies and their partners are forced to come out with press releases like this one. #CPEC , once the apple of the state’s eye, has been turned into a favourite punching bag. What a U-turn. #China
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
7 years
The most extensive case for why CPEC won't ever be an energy corridor - by Chinese analyst at MOFCOM: HT @LinWANG_EW
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
4 years
We already appear to be moving to a stage where China's propaganda in Europe is either actively harmful (blame Italy) or so heavy-handed that it is liable to backfire (Huawei supplying face-masks) A few samples below.
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
4 years
Notable point from the Chinese ambassador to Pakistan - that “if Pakistan is in need, China will never ask it to repay its loans in time”. This is precisely what some Pakistani officials negotiating CPEC projects in the first place were counting on…
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
4 years
China faces wave of calls for debt relief on ‘Belt and Road’ projects. China "has not formed a plan on dealing with the growing requests" - but the "rules of thumb" laid out are interesting:
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
7 years
A strong, closely coordinated message on the Gwadar-Chabahar link at this CPEC event (in Gwadar) from Chinese, Pakistani & Iranian officials
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
6 years
As a result, China will be looking for ways to fix this, not rubbing its hands. This is part of the trend of claiming that China is “the winner” almost anytime anything happens anywhere, even when Chinese policymakers themselves think precisely the opposite… 9/9
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
1 year
But now China can accrue credit, and be treated as the more “responsible” power, for making statements that were treated as boilerplate a few months ago, and without having to follow through on them. Indeed, this is deemed a success from the Scholz visit, so low is the bar now 7/
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Andrew Small
6 years
Pakistan puts off signing revised FTA with China at the last minute after "serious reservations" from textile industry - and apprehension about impact on CPEC special economic zones:
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
4 years
There are clearly more important things going on at the moment but since I (like many) am fielding questions every day on Sino-European dynamics and “Chinese leadership” during and beyond the COVID-19 crisis, here is a quick thread of my scattergun initial thoughts 1/
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
5 years
The situation in Xinjiang is going to explode in public opinion. It could bring about a sea change in the attitude to China in western democracies. #SCF20
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
1 year
Privately, Chinese experts say that Beijing doesn't have meaningful leverage: that if Russia was determined to go ahead with using nuclear weapons, there isn’t anything that China could do to stop it, so it wouldn't really try. 6/
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
5 years
The lack of a large Saudi-style payment offer during the Imran visit is normal - that's not how China provides economic support to Pakistan; and it was also not expected that the full details of the CPEC "rebalance" would be agreed by the time of the trip:
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
7 years
Political situation in Pakistan has "hampered the pace of progress" on CPEC in last two months:
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
4 years
This crisis has a “made in China” stamp and the questions about what happened in those early days in Wuhan are already being picked over with as much forensic attention as subprime mortgage lending a decade back. It does not and will not show the Chinese system in a good light.
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
4 years
I have a new brief up for @ecfr on how the pandemic will reshape relations between Europe and China. Beijing’s handling of the financial crisis and its aftermath influenced Europe’s China policy for a decade. This will also have lasting repercussions:
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
6 years
My piece for @ThePrintIndia on what the drama at the FATF tells us about China-Pakistan relations and where Chinese support to Pakistan has its limits:
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
3 years
Second, US coalition-building on China will be tiered - the US will move further and faster with close allies who are willing to go "all in" and take more risks 6/
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
7 years
My piece on why Pakistan's attempts to play the China card usually don't work - and why this time may be different:
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
6 years
Probably the most serious "connectivity" piece of CPEC - big Dawn look at fiber-optics, comms, data, surveillance:
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
3 years
It was characterized by its advocates as a victory for "strategic autonomy". In numerous meetings at the time, the suggestion that waiting for consultations with the new US administration might be mutually beneficial was treated almost as an affront to European sovereignty 2/
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Andrew Small
3 years
First, partners and allies in Asia facing a heightened level of coercion and perceived threat see the approach to China as a litmus test for reliability. It affects the quality, depth and scope of Europe's relationships in the region 5/
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Andrew Small
3 years
But as long as the European approach lags behind what virtually all of its major democratic partners see as the new reality they are facing with China, developments like this week will be repeated, even if they are orchestrated with greater diplomatic finesse 17/17
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
5 years
Interesting article but for all the references to US vs. China on 5G, "there must be a single winner", European allies "have to take sides", no mention that the main alternative 5G network equipment providers to Huawei are Ericsson and Nokia, not US firms:
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
3 years
Zhou Bo's "don't worry, Afghanistan definitely won't be the graveyard of our empire!" piece evidently at points reads like trolling - and Mei Xinyu encapsulates IMO what the serious Chinese officials actually think: But... 1/13
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
2 years
Even if Beijing is now sufficiently concerned about the Russian invasion and the risks of their being associated with it that they've marginally tapered things back, none of this is likely to be forgotten in the wider context of Europe's dramatic foreign policy overhaul... 13/13
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
3 years
The European side is free to opt out, move more slowly, hold back, differentiate, but there will be areas of defense, technology, and economic cooperation that move ahead more quickly between other partners, which will have a distinct effect on European interests 7/
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
3 years
A lot of China-Taliban questions have come up this week. An incident worth highlighting (with excerpts) that may help to illustrate why China will remain nervous about security around their economic projects even with Taliban assurances 1/4
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
4 years
More on the Japanese plans to reduce dependence on China, going beyond the familiar "China plus one" model to a "shift away from China" policy: via @DavidKleimann
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Andrew Small
2 years
Particularly notable given the fears among western officials about what this conspiracy theory might be laying the groundwork for. A genuinely risk-averse China would have stayed far away from even the hint of association with a potential chemical or biological weapons attack
@panphil
Philip P. Pan
2 years
Not good: Analysts who study disinformation said this was the first time they had seen this scale of amplification between Beijing and Moscow around a conspiracy theory.
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
4 years
I am slightly bemused that this article (not all of which I agree with) has elicited a wave of “actually, Brexit was good for the UK’s China policy, it has now been freed from the EU shackles” responses. A few points. 1/12
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
7 years
On Afghanistan, making Pakistan the target won’t resolve things; trying to take Pakistan out of the equation creates other problems #ITF13
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
3 years
But there are obvious implications from the entire episode and the general Merkel-Macron active differentiation efforts on China that we have seen since: 4/
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
3 years
But the ball is not just in the US court. The Biden administration approached its early China talks with the Europeans by basically asking what sort of approach they would want if the two sides were to co-construct China policy. They have still not received a clear answer 11/
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
4 years
We will launch a new report on CPEC, the China-Pakistan relationship, and the BRI next week. Sign up for the event - which will feature @Rabs_AA and @HillmanJE - here:
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
4 years
"China immediately lent $1bn to Pakistan following the decision by Saudi Arabia to cut off aid and could potentially offer more...'Within hours and not days of Saudi Arabia conveying its demand to Pakistan, China offered to place $1bn with our state bank'"
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
6 years
These "Chinese prisoner labor" stories used to appear in Afghanistan too - never found any evidence that it was true there either. One of the reasons they started up was because locals believed that Chinese working such long hours in such basic conditions must be convicts...
@zlj517
Lijian Zhao 赵立坚
6 years
Shocked to hear that an MNA said Chinese prisoners are working on cpec projects. Chinese companies bring minimum engineers & skilled workers from China. Multan Sukkor Motorway alone provides 22000 local jobs. Are they prisoners, too? @CPEC_Official @CathayPak @PlanComPakistan
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
5 years
On China trip, Imran Khan will "inform the Chinese leadership" that his government wants a "significant shift" in CPEC projects - less infrastructure. China normally first overseas stop for Pakistani PMs. This time - fourth (Saudi*2 and Malaysia first):
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
6 years
It is rare to read a wholly original and interesting take on CPEC nowadays - so much has already been said and said again - but this piece has a fascinating and clever angle, well worth a read
@tomthehack
Tom Hussain
6 years
In Pakistan, it isn't about whether CPEC is good or bad. It is about whose business interests are benefited or harmed, and how that ties into the overall political power structure. My report on the recent Dawood interview controversy. via @SCMPNews
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
4 years
This push now coming more seriously from multiple actors, with aligned objectives. Japan: US: Australia: And I mention the EU context in this piece:
@RRajagopalanJNU
Rajesh Rajagopalan
4 years
Important report from @PramitWorld on India now deciding that it has to counter Chinese influence in multilateral orgs. [Long overdue, but this also needs powerful allies. Expect many countries in Middle East, Africa & Latin America to support China]
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Andrew Small
5 years
Chinese ambassador to the Maldives tells newly-elected president that debt to China is twice as large as most estimates... Very interesting report from Male by @SBengali -
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Andrew Small
3 years
The AUKUS deal is indicative of the Biden admin's sense of the need to take serious, transformative steps to deal with the scale of the challenge they see from China. If the European side only wants "low-hanging fruit" for the next couple of years, that is not cost-free 14/
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
4 years
. @d_jaishankar and I have a piece up for @warontherocks today. As others have also noted, even though Chinese foreign policy has been “assertive” for some time, what’s going on at the moment looks qualitatively different: 1/4
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Andrew Small
6 years
I'm aware of very few surveys in Pakistan on CPEC. The Pakistan China Institute has conducted one and it's quite critical. Lots of other useful stats in the report too:
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Andrew Small
7 years
Iranian official: Iran will avoid any outside interference aimed at creating division between these two countries (Iran and Pakistan)
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
1 year
Today that's Xi winning credit in Berlin, without - I suspect - paying a price with Moscow. But well before Zhou Bo's Taiwan op-ed appeared, there were already concerns that Beijing might also draw and apply some very different nuclear lessons too 12/12
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Andrew Small
1 year
If you followed Zhou Bo’s other recent op-eds, you would have noted him making a very different argument re Taiwan: that if China concludes that Russian nuclear threats have deterred the US, it should (further) expand its arsenal and (deniable hint...) revisit “no first use" 9/
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Andrew Small
3 years
Hugely interesting interview with one of China's top South Asia hands. Short version: US-India relations are going to get closer whatever we do. But also have an upper limit. So the price China would pay for greater restraint at the border isn't worth paying.
@splalwani
Sameer P. Lalwani
3 years
Ye Hailin's analysis of the China-India relationship and India-US alignment is a worthy read [Ye is a senior S Asia scholar at CASS], but his hamburger-curry metaphor for the limits of US-India strategic partnership is especially 💯 (h/t @antaragsingh )
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Andrew Small
3 years
Transatlantic talks on China have proceeded relatively well. But there is also endless European signaling around straw men-"we don't agree on everything, we don't believe in decoupling, we don't want all-out confrontation"- rather than ambition to shape a coordinated approach 12/
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Andrew Small
4 years
"China says it has struck agreements with half of the 20 low-income nations that have requested debt restructurings":
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
5 years
I have a new piece up at Foreign Affairs on Europe’s changing approach to China and what it means for the US. Some key points below, plus some additional background links
@ForeignAffairs
Foreign Affairs
5 years
As next week’s EU-China summit approaches, writes @ajwsmall , Europe has begun to fundamentally rethink its China policies.
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Andrew Small
6 years
Pakistani government issues "rebuttal" to the FT CPEC interview - though essentially only objects to tone / context; none of Dawood's critical statements are disavowed
@TalatHussain12
Syed Talat Hussain
6 years
Yet another clarification. First it was India. Then it was the US and now its China. Amazing record.
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Andrew Small
7 years
Iranian official: It is hoped that close cooperation between Gwadar & Chabahar will make them a hub of regional trade & economic cooperation
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Andrew Small
6 years
A very good piece by Shyam Saran on the stakes for India, the US et al in the Maldives and refocusing the response to China in India's periphery: HT @suhasinih
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Andrew Small
1 year
None of this is to say that China actually wants Russia to threaten or use nuclear weapons. But it is certainly figuring out how to take advantage of this dynamic - in a variety of ways - and at very little cost 11/
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Andrew Small
2 years
Pushing China on discrete areas still has value: UN votes; warning that sanctions-busting will hit Chinese entities too. Continuing to ask Beijing to help during one of Europe’s gravest security crises and having them continually refuse has demonstration value too 14/
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
6 years
If the Mattis CPEC line was impromptu, this Tillerson Belt & Road critique is indicative of where US policy heading:
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Andrew Small
6 years
Iran invites Pakistan (and China) to participate in Chabahar, says Gwadar and Chabahar need to be linked through land and sea routes to benefit from complementarity:
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
6 years
This FT podcast gives more details on the purported China-Baloch militant meetings: they "have taken place outside Pakistan", are "mainly geared towards persuading the militants to lay down their arms and enter negotiations with the Pakistani government":
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
3 years
"Recently, the security situation in Pakistan has been severe. There have been several terrorist attacks in succession, resulting in the casualties of several Chinese citizens." Strong language from the Chinese embassy in this and other recent statements after the Dasu attack 1/3
@ChinaEurasia
China in Eurasia
3 years
Statement by the Chinese Embassy in Pakistan on the Suicide Attack on the Gwadar Eastbay Expressway Project
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
3 years
This by @rhodium_group is the most substantial effort that I've seen to look at the scale and nature of Chinese BRI (and other) debt renegotiations in the context of the economic fallout from the pandemic. Essential read:
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
6 years
This stark FT interview with Abdul Razak Dawood on CPEC - just as Wang Yi wraps up his Pakistan visit - gives further grounds for thinking that the initiative will now be on go-slow mode:
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@ajwsmall
Andrew Small
7 years
Video shown by Chairman of China Overseas Ports Holding Company says Gwadar “will be the largest shipping centre in South Asia” by 2022
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