Homicide and Incarceration in
#Philadelphia
One of the strongest indicators of homicide in Philadelphia is how many criminals are incarcerated in PA State Prison
This is why forced decarceration has been a disaster, as seen in the right end of the graph
Competent, meaningful prosecution that sends criminals from Philadelphia to PA State Prison is important, as are following through with parole violations
In the graph below, 2013 has the lowest number of homicides and highest number of Philadelphians sent to state prison
Decarecation slowly began in ~2015 with the Macarthur Foundation pumping money into the city. Admissions from court began to decrease.
Then in 2018 court commitments fell rapidly along with parole violations. Far fewer Philly criminals were going to state prison
Court convictions and pleas sending Philadelphia criminals to state prison correlates with homicides, especially in times of big change
In the mid-2000s, a ~20% dip in court commitments occurs alongside a ~20% rise in murders. Also, obviously, the late 2010s to 2021
Here is a normalized graph that looks at the variables: PHL state prison pop, PHL state prison admissions, and homicides on a per capita basis
The population data in the prison reports noted a sharp decline in Philly's population in the mid 2000s, coinciding with rising murder
This is a different view of the data for Philadelphians in PA State Prison and Homicides in Philadelphia.
I liked this one, but wasn't sure how clear it would be
@OverSaltPretzel
These charts are so crazy
Not that I didn’t know there’s a relationship between being soft on crime and increased crime - but these graphs put it out there for everyone to easily see
Well done
@OverSaltPretzel
@retiredPhlADA
I asked Krasner about this in a virtual town hall 4 yrs ago. He said he saw no evidence or connection between lower incareration rates and higher crime numbers. Of course we all knew that was BS. I mean, it’s just common sense. We need to find the RIGHT balance, but this ain’t it