The AEA operating budget was in the black five years ago. This year, they expect to spend $1.23 for every $1 in operating revenue. What gives? Revenues (+7% in nominal terms 2015-2020) are not keeping up with expenses (+35.5%).

You know how the AEA is actually doing important stuff, like the RCT registry, @LetoC 's ombuds office, workshops, and so forth? "Program and activity" expenses are up 85% over five years. The association is dipping into its bank account to pay for them.

@LetoC Doubling journal submission fees and raising dues by $2 (the upper bound permitted in the bylaws) will bring in about $500k. But there's still a $2.5M deficit. To close it, dues would have to rise by $120/member (i.e., quintuple).

@LetoC That might seem like a lot, but dues of $150/member don't really look out of line compared with other professional associations.

@LetoC Here's another looming concern. Nearly 40% of AEA revenue comes from EconLit. That's more than dues, submission fees, and conference registration combined. EconLit is advertised to libraries as an "authoritative" literature database. But can it compete with @Google Scholar?

@LetoC @Google EconLit revenue growth is projected to stall. If Google Scholar drives it out of business, plugging the hole in the AEA budget would require an ADDITIONAL $210/member. Above the $150/member to cover the current operating deficit.

@LetoC @Google Now consider the fact that many of us want the AEA to do MORE. Expand legal support to pursue conduct investigations! Fund outreach programs in high schools! Subsidize data access! Reverse the policy of $100 desk rejections! How are we going to pay for all that?

@LetoC @Google Here's one more thought that occurred to me as I perused the budget. Top departments -- where the editors work, where the faculty & students almost certainly cash more referee checks per capita -- get more money from the AEA than they contribute. Everybody else...

@JakeVigdor Wait I’m sorry, interloper here: $100 desk rejections, referee checks? What are those?

@JakeVigdor When I see “publishing expenses” how much of that is printing physical journal copies? Because... probably could cut some of that.

@JakeVigdor Insightful as always! Thank you Jake.

@JakeVigdor Seems like a big Q is what’s the price elasticity of membership and how would rising P affect the representativeness of the organization?

@odd_opinions5 let me know when you update this with the link to the FY 2019 & 2020 budgets. My shitty photo & I can wait. (this was distributed in paper copy at the business meeting, papers & proceedings will come out in MAY)