I don't buy the argument that the recession could cause Fed to raise rates less aggressively and stocks could see a rebound because: 1) Inflation is still fucking high and not slowing down enough yet 2) Upside from fewer rate hikes will be offset by lower earnings + uncertainty

I believe the GDP print on 6/29 is the first domino that needs to fall for us to see a $500 ETH price in the short term.

Following the GDP print comes the upcoming CPI print + FOMC commentary. There is a real argument to be made here that inflation gets worse in July & August as:

1) Travel has not slowed down yet 2) Oil demand spikes in summer months (i.e. July 4th, vacation etc…) 3) Chats with large construction companies show home prices remain elevated 4) Food prices continue to get worse as oil prices rise This would further de-rail markets.

In addition, recent market moves suggest people are not taking the Fed credibly with regards to commentary around rate hikes and that just adds to the downside.

If the GDP print + CPI print + FOMC commentary all play out according to plan - we will likely be at a triple digit $ETH price once again. However, the land mine that investors would have to overcome would still not be over as 2Q22 company earnings would be just on the horizon.

For years, tech investors have grown complacent (especially in software) with constant earnings beat + raises. I remember doing analysis back when I was in public equities and saw that software stocks go up post earnings 80% of the time.

For the first time in many years - that is about to change We have already seen large reputable companies engage in layoffs (i.e. Tesla), warn of slowing growth (i.e. Snapchat) and I believe that this is just getting started.

Many channel checks I have done talking to employees at other large reputable companies tell me that many more companies are starting to revise internal targets lower for the first time in years.

2Q earnings will likely be the final domino to fall for us to see real capitulation in crypto markets. Add in the fact that there is still liquidations happening below $1000 $ETH price + crypto sentiment are at all time lows already and that is just a recipe for disaster.

@HighCoinviction Nice thesis. But why is your fund not short if you have high conviction about this short opportunity?

@HighCoinviction November 2021 called….

@HighCoinviction P/E contraction was a function of macro conditions worsening and liquidity drying up. Makes sense that crypto, a liquidity-driven market, follows in this phase. Part of me agrees, but also the earnings of public companies drive fundamental value.

@HighCoinviction Doesn't sound very high conviction if you aren't Short yourself

@HighCoinviction @SaveToNotion #Thread

@HighCoinviction I think we are drifting to 1500 as eth beta fades

@HighCoinviction Still shorting?

@HighCoinviction 🫡🫡🫡

@HighCoinviction If this is your view, does your fund have crypto exposure rn? Seems like an obvious all crypto is down under this set of events that regardless if shorting or not seems like shouldn’t be exposed if this is a strong stance.

@HighCoinviction Co-Founder of Pangea. Bet big, go for the jugular. High conviction. Long post about why $ETH will crash to $500. Has no conviction to bet big or go for jugular. 🤔

@HighCoinviction Why would you share an idea but not put your money where your idea is? Set up the short and post it here. Nothing new in your analysis, would be interesting to see your take on the recent inventory data (esp Target trynna pay customers to keep unwanted items) + Burry's new view.

@HighCoinviction @RemindMe_OfThis in 2 weeks

@HighCoinviction Pangea is not short - that means you either don't have a conviction on this trade or this is not where your edge lies. What's the catch? Also, the R/R asymmetry is more on the upside or inflation surprise to the downside - at least this is what the bond market is signaling.

@HighCoinviction A long thread to say "Crypto follows growth stocks" When stocks turn around crypto will also but not before. :-)

@HighCoinviction @RemindMe_OfThis 1 month

@HighCoinviction So Pangea not being short.. means.. this entire thread is low conviction 🤦‍♂️

@HighCoinviction lol what a closing statement

@HighCoinviction Womp womp womp

@HighCoinviction hi, revisiting this: did pangea ended up going short?

@HighCoinviction Dam bro. Hope the interns had the balls to go against the bosses view. Usually doesn’t go that way. Kudos if they did.