Although officially only the PA in the West Bank will receive the gas revenue, there’s no denying that Hamas will get some of it too, otherwise it won’t allow the field to be developed. It might be an Israeli prize to Hamas for helping it against Islamic Jihad militants last May.
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Last week, Israel quietly approved the development of “Gaza Marine”, a small offshore gas field near Gaza that will serve the Palestinian Authority (and Hamas) both for revenue and energy independence. Why was it approved, and how does this relate to the Lebanon deal? A thread.
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The Gaza Marine was discovered in the late 90s, estimated to contain 30BCM. It accordance with international law and a series of agreements made between Israel and the Palestinians in 1999, it belongs to the PA. But de-facto, it can’t be developed without Israeli approval.
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For over 20 years the field was left undeveloped. It was too small to attract private investment for such a risky political climate. When Hamas took control of Gaza in 2007, Israel didn’t want revenue from the field to fall into their hands, so it blocked further progress.
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New negotiations began over a year ago through Egypt, and finally a breakthrough occurred last week. Egypt wants to sponsor the project, and most of the gas will be sold to Egypt’s energy sector (perhaps to be exported to Europe as LNG).
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But why did israel approve a deal that will most likely benefit Hamas? Especially with this current right-wing government in Israel who opposed a similar deal with Lebanon led by the previous government a year before? Good question. Here are the most common speculations:
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One speculation is that it was meant to soften U.S. discontent over Israel’s recent decision to expand settlements. Both announcements were made the same week, so it can definitely explain the timing. But this deal was over a year in the making, so it’s not a sufficient reason.
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A second speculation is that it is part of a larger Egyptian/Israeli effort to calm down the political situation in Gaza with its warring factions (Hamas vs. Islamic Jihad). There’s also plan to build a new harbor in Egypt to bring more goods into Gaza and help its economy.
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A third speculation is that other parties form the region were involved in the deal. Perhaps they are conditioning impending political or economic agreements with Israel on more concessions to the Palestinians. Perhaps normalization with Saudi Arabia? Maybe some deal with Turkey?
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Whatever the reason, there’s no denying that this deal could not have happened without the precedent created by the Lebanon maritime delimitation deal in October 2022. The similarities with that deal are clear:
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#1
: Both follow the concept of economic development as a tool for more peaceful relations (but not peace). Aka the “having something to lose” doctrine. Both Lebanon and Gaza are in very bad economic shape, and gas development could help them recover.
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#2
: Both deals include indirect negotiations between Israel and a hostile non-state militant organization which is clearly acting behind the scenes and approving the deal (Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza).
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#3
: Both deals are using third party countries to help negotiate and serve as a buffer between the sides to circumvent the “we don’t talk to X” problem (USA and France+Total in Lebanon, Egypt in Gaza).
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Whether the deal goes through or not, it shows the ability of the maritime arena to be a place for economic cooperation between unlikely partners, even in harsh political circumstances. Perhaps this model can work in other places as well (Cyprus/Turkey?)
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Dr. Benny Spanier and I wrote more extensively on this in Hebrew in a Ynet opinion column.
See here:
@BIUPolitics
@BESA_Center
@Bar_ilan
@ubarilan
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@BIUPolitics
@BESA_Center
@Bar_ilan
@ubarilan
My thread on why Israel approved the development of the
#GazaMarine
offshore gas field was expanded and turned into a perspective paper for
@BESA_Center
. Feel free to cite and share.
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My new article with Dr. Benny Spanier has now been published in the Journal of World Energy Law & Business. It dispels the argument that Israel wishes to claim Gaza's gas field, and examines why it still blocked the development of the field since 2000:
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