13/ In the case of Israel-Lebanon, it is unlikely that two hostile countries (technically still in a state of war) will co-produce a gas field. The more likely scenario is that one side sells their share of the field to the other, without conceding the actual physical territory.

14/ In this case, Israel seems to have agreed to sell its rights to the field and let Lebanon produce it on its own. The exact compensation is unknown. It depends on how viable the field will be. It will take time and additional drilling to figure it out.

15/ Now this is just my personal opinion on the matter: everyone wins from such a deal. Israel has an interest that Lebanon will remain stable and enjoy some prosperity with its own gas field, otherwise it will collapse into itself and that’s bad news for Israel as well. Also...

16/ Israel has an interest to present an atmosphere of regional stability and cooperation in order to encourage international energy companies to come and look for more gas in the waters of the East Mediterranean Sea. Conflict is not good for business.

17/ The more gas that companies find in the area (whether in Lebanon, Cyprus, Israel or Egypt), the more economically viable it will become to build expensive physical infrastructure that can export the gas to Europe and elsewhere.

18/ It also creates a kind of "balance of terror” (if you believe in that theory) because Hezbollah knows that if it sabotages Israeli gas fields (as it repeatedly tries to do), it will now jeopardize its own country’s gas fields.

19/ In any case, these negotiations have nothing to do with Israel’s “Karish” gas field. The Lebanese government is not claiming any rights over that field. Hezbollah tried to create this connection by sending drones to hit the “Karish” gas field a few months ago.

Final/ Hezbollah apparently wants to make it seem as if its attacks on Karish are what propelled the deal forward. But this is not the case. If it wasn’t for Hezbollah, the deal would have been signed two years ago, and perhaps today Lebanon would not be in this economic chaos.

I will add 3 tweets to answer critique that Israel essentially moved from holding 45% of the disputed area (Hof Compromise of 2020) to 0% of the area (Lebanon’s line 23). The specific division of the territory is meaningless so long as Qana itself is divided between the sides —>

These are international waters and no side has sovereignty over them. The only thing that matters is who owns the potential energy deposits in the area. If Israel cedes 100% of the disputed triangle, but still gets its share of the gas field, then it’s the same result —>

@ElaiRettig You better hope the revolutionaries in Iran win this current struggle. Why enrich Hezbollah?

@ElaiRettig @TheReaderapp unroll.

@ElaiRettig 1.מסכים עם היתרונות לישראל שכתבת ב: #15 + #17 | 2.מ- #16 משתמע שלהסכם זה יש השפעה חשובה על אפשרות להציג שכוך של הסכסוך בין המדינות, כאילו ששאר גורמי הסכסוך זניחים - זה תמוה. | 3.ב- #18 : " 'מאזן טרור' (אם אתה מאמין בתיאוריה הזו)" - הנה שרשור על זה:

@FCallen3 It doesn’t trust it. The deal seems to be that “Total”, the French energy company that will develop the potential field, will be the one paying Israel.