With the
@Hyliion
stock having gone down to a buck it can get easy to think $100 share price is a pipe dream only spoken by blind pumpers. Here are some calculations to remind you it is far from far fetched:
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@Hyliion
In the coming years 300,000 plus class 8 trucks will be sold in the US annually. A 3% marketshare would mean 9000 ERXs sold annually. Stop and think about that for a second. That would mean 97 out of every 100 trucks sold would be something other than an ERX.
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@Hyliion
Diesel is inferior in TCO and performance. BEV and Hydrogen just don’t work for long haul yet. The Cummins 15L NG ICE does not have zero emission capability. For for us to get only 3% marketshare it would mean 97% of sales are of an inferior solution to the ERX.
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@Hyliion
No, I think 3% is very doable, I’ll be surprised if we don’t end up with way more than that. But just for shits and giggles let’s go with that figure for our calculation exercise.
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@Hyliion
9000 trucks X $200,000 per truck = $1.8 billion in annual revenue.
A conservative 10 times revenue valuation metric puts the company’s market cap at $18 billion.
An $18 billion market cap, divided by 180 million outstanding shares = a stock price of $100/share.
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@Hyliion
So there you go, does $100 really seem like a pipe dream? Not to me it doesn’t, not at all, in fact it seems conservative. Now let’s say we do better than 3% marketshare. Every additional 3% is another $100 in share price.
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@Hyliion
10% marketshare is a $333 share price. And we haven’t even talked about the KARNO and its stationary applications, software subscriptions, international markets, or entries into new vehicle types, all things we know are eventually on the way.
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@AndriusRut
@Hyliion
Couple of ? Can they make 9000 in the near future, no. Doubt they will trade at 10 times revenue, what would the earnings per share be and maybe 15 times that. This is after all a car/truck company. Plus you are assuming no new stock issue and that is almost certain to happen.
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@AndriusRut
@Hyliion
I agree for the most part but I don’t think you’ve taken into consideration all the shit-face-get-rich-quick traders that got creamed and don’t have a clue about the fundamentals. When they hit break even they’ll surely get out so I foresee A LOT of upside resistance ..
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@AndriusRut
@Hyliion
$200k margin?? Come on! That’s the ultimate pump job if I’ve ever seen. Lol
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