Latest modelling of the Omicron wave by
@cmmid_lshtm
suggests the following for England:
🦠 21 - 35 million infections
🏥 175 - 492 thousand hospitalisations
💀 25 - 75 thousand deaths
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Replies
Yes, that is roughly half the population of England getting infected by Omicron over the next few months, assuming no further restrictions.
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Credit to some of the brilliant scientists involved in the rapid modelling effort.
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Much more detail on the modelling here:
The B.1.1.529 SARS-CoV-2 variant was first reported on 24th November 2021, and 2 days later
@WHO
designated it
#Omicron
. Since then we (me
@_nickdavies
@cap1024
@markjit
and John Edmunds) have worked to understand potential consequences for England. 🧵 []
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@DavidPenneyPRW
@cmmid_lshtm
@DevanSinha
I’m just chatting with
@lrossouw
in South Africa to better understand their reporting patterns.
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@ActuaryByDay
@cmmid_lshtm
@DevanSinha
Small observation, but first thing I did was try and convert to daily cases, hospitalisation and deaths. Isn’t the public better able to understand the projections vs current rates if presented as daily occurrences?
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@Disco_1999
@cmmid_lshtm
@DevanSinha
You can read the daily numbers off the charts. So the scenario circled in yellow appears to be peaking at (very roughly)
500,000 daily infections
5,000 daily hospitalisations
500 daily deaths
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@ActuaryByDay
@cmmid_lshtm
@DevanSinha
How many people affected by Long Covid? Certainly an awful lot more than outpatient services and GPs can manage. It will have a huge impact on economy too, with people unable to work.
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@ActuaryByDay
@cmmid_lshtm
@DevanSinha
I can’t see how this is credible when we have c 20m with prior infection and 40% of population (c20m) triple jabbed which gives 75% infection protection. This implies everyone else in England gets omicron
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