Michel Accad @AccadMichel Twitter profile

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Michel Accad

2 years

@WalstarW @hanihassan26 Ignorance of our end date is a bliss: it lets us live the ultimate delusion of our own immortality until our last breath.

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

9 days

@MailOnline To catch a French spy, they should try the tax evasion (“fisc”) trap.

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

1 year

@Yoda4ever I think Huskie is showing empathy and solidarity actually!

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

3 years

I have some real bad news. “Return the stolen money” is an empty slogan. Money was indeed stolen, but (95% of) it was spent, wasted, and can’t be returned. It went into subsidies (electricity, fuel), public sector wages, Councils, and interest. We will just get back crumbs.

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

3 years

When the concept of “fresh” money was created, the cruel message was that the existing money had become “stale”. The accounting parity between the two moneys is a delusion. The differential is the haircut. There must be better, fairer ways to allocate losses.

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

3 years

As we disintegrate, I hear more people talking about doing something with our gold. Don’t let them come near it. This generation didn’t earn the right to touch the gold. It is for the next generation to decide. We’ve already stolen their dreams. We cannot not leave them anything.

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

3 years

We sabotaged the Iraq oil swap because we couldn’t get a juicy side deal for our trading partners. But we can now buy oil from Iran, which puts us at risk of sanctions. The timing of which, lemon doubly, may derail our chance to get electricity through Jordan or Egypt. Hard luck.

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

3 years

The decision by BDL to stop the subsidies on fuel is the right decision. It is also a courageous one. It is high time we stop using what remains from the depositors’ money to support the smugglers, the friendly neighbor and the Iran balance of trade.

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

2 years

When the crisis started, in Oct 2019, BDL had $33Bn in FX reserves. Today, they are down to $8Bn. So we wasted $25Bn in 3 years on fuel subsidies and to support the currency. Why? To buy protection from the politicians, and help the smugglers and our neighbor. $25Bn! Evaporated.

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

3 years

Stop the piecemeal schemes. We need a comprehensive solution. There is no way out without an IMF program. None. NONE. Whoever says otherwise is liar, or an idiot, or both. Yes, an IMF program will hurt - but you mean we’re not hurting now?

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

3 years

The EU is now saying that the sanctions will come in one month. Wow! That’s a very useful advance warning for the targeted people to move their money to more hospitable places. Perhaps the EU could call each one individually to make sure they don’t catch them by mistake?

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

3 years

Dan Azzi said it better than me and 3 months before me! Respect!

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

3 years

Iranian oil comes to Lebanon via Syria. Meanwhile, our subsidized oil is smuggled the other way round, from Lebanon to Syria. Here’s a better idea: keep the Iranian oil in Syria and the subsidized oil in Lebanon. (We’ll even refund the smugglers’ opportunity loss!)

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

1 year

Sayrafa is a SCAM. It allows civil servants (& others) to buy cash dollars at the Sayrafa rate and resell them in the parallel at a 20-40% premium. If we want to help civil servants survive on their meager wage, give them a raise, instead of stealing that premium from depositors.

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

2 years

Did you know that the banking system gap of $72Bn includes the gold? That means that, without gold, the gap would be ~$90Bn. It also means that gold is a “backstop”, and using it will NOT reduce the gap. It will in fact increase the gap once you (inevitably) misuse it. So: Don’t.

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

2 years

Zapping between Lebanese talk shows this evening, I am struck, once again, by the level of incompetence, idiocy, populism, and denial of many of the participants. If you think a solution today is going to hurt, the only certainty is that a solution in the future will hurt more.

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

3 years

We stand frozen like a deer in the headlight. We haven’t done one thing, NOT ONE, to help ourselves and help others help us. No decision. No election. No government. No plan. No reform. No IMF. We are self-destructing in our inaction, just waiting for a miracle that won’t happen.

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

10 months

My friends claim that Lebanon is the land of IMPUNITY. But of course, they are wrong. Totally. “Impunity” is when a crime is exempt from consequences and punishment. But in Lebanon, on the contrary, crime is REWARDED. That is a different, and entirely new philosophical concept.

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

3 years

We’ve experienced time with and without a President, and with and without a Government. (I didn’t notice much difference.) But always with a Parliament. Now we should try without all three and see what happens. What do we have to lose?

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

2 years

I hear voices - including some within ABL - suggesting using our gold to pay depositors, &/or to continue with the subsidies, &/or to peg the LBP. Don’t touch the gold, whether to sell it, to pledge it, or to financial engineer it. Don’t. Touch. The. Gold.

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

9 months

A dear friend just sent me this great quote from Plato: 'The price good men pay for indifference to public affairs is to be ruled by evil men.'

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

3 years

Lebanon has broken another Guinness world record! It’s not just in Hummus that we’re unbeatable. Now it’s in exchange rates too. No country before us had 8 different FX rates. It’s actually 4 rates (1,500; 3,900; 12,000; and 14,000), multiplied by 2 (LBP cash or check?). Bravo!

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

3 years

We say we need to promote the “productive” sectors: agriculture and industry. Fine. But we don’t mention the services sector: health, education, hospitality, etc, where we had clear competitive advantage. They were productive then and brought FX. Now they aren’t, and we know why.

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

3 years

Typically, the 5 stages of grief are: denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and finally acceptance. It took us a few months to get over the denial stage. Now, we (the State, the politicians, the bankers, the people) are in the anger stage - but progressing. Slowly. Too slowly.

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

1 year

The last creative idea by our regulators is to clear locally, through them, “fresh $” checks and transfers. This looks like one more desperate attempt to take the money and run before the FX reserves vanish entirely. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

3 years

@dgheim I’ve heard the rumor too. Don’t know if it’s true. My staff will not like my response, but my view is that any fresh $ that are available in banks belong to the depositors — not to the staff, not to the executives and not to the GM.

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

8 months

A Lebanese sovereign wealth fund for oil and gas, before we extract the gas, and before we get the funds. So we can start spending the money before we earn it. Great idea. It wouldn’t be the first one. Besides, we have total confidence on how it will be managed and by whom.

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

2 years

My doctor thinks I need a surgical intervention. My plumber doesn’t think so. But he is a good plumber, I should listen to him. The same applies to the restructuring plan. Why listen to the professional economists when you have perfectly qualified plumbers?

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

3 years

Is this a tale of rebirth, or just the effect of the ammonium nitrate as a fertilizer?

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

1 year

On second thought I think we should adopt both time zones, depending on the occasion. For instance, in the morning, I will follow the Berri-Mikati time, so I can sleep an extra hour. But at the end of the day, I will switch to Bkerke time, so I can come back home an hour earlier.

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

2 years

The French courts decision in favor of EU residents and against Lebanese banks is not just bad news for the banks. It’s bad for the local depositors too. That’s because such decision gives precedence to large EU & UK depositors over smaller local depositors. 1/2

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

11 months

Pinocchio just said the deposits will all come back. I feel reassured.

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

2 years

Total local $ deposits in Lebanese banks are $100Bn. Real $ assets that banks hold against them are $2Bn (2%), split ~20/80 between cash in vaults ($400m) and placements overseas ($1.6Bn). The rest of the $100Bn are placed mainly with BDL ($85Bn), in loans and in Eurobonds. 1/2

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

3 years

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

3 years

This story, real or fake, now making the rounds on WhatsApp, is so moving and so heartwarming…

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

3 years

I’ve now wrestled the Tweeter controls back from my evil twin. Until next full Moon. Meanwhile, in Gotham, we’re told that: our $ deposits can only be drawn in LBP (ie they’re being Lirafied); and that the $ are needed to help subsidize the neighbors and the smugglers. Cool.

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

3 years

1/3 My last couple of tweets were insensitive and they’ve hurt innocent people. The choice of wording was very poor. The point, however, was simply that the systemic losses are very large, inaction is costly, and hoping for an external solution is unrealistic.

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

3 years

This crisis has caused a massive transfer of wealth - away from the depositors to the borrowers (who could now repay their debt at a subsidized price/rate). Borrowers, at least some of them, needed help, to be sure. But it came from a wrong source that itself needed to be helped.

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

1 year

The accelerating hyperinflation and collapse of the Lira is not by accident or the work of “speculators”. It is the consequence of the conscious decision to print Liras recklessly and to “inflate ourselves out of our problems”. But it won’t work. An IMF plan is the only solution.

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

3 years

Heartiest congrats to Albert and his incredible guests for gifting us one of the most spectacular, the most riveting, the most provocative 2030 show of the past year! 👏👏

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

2 years

$25Bn! That’s more than our gas revenue estimates for the next 20 years. And more than what we will receive from all donors combined over the next 20 years. Go figure!

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

3 years

The Lebanese Robin Hood’s are hard at work to buy the people’s love and votes. They will steal money from the rich - and the less rich - and give crumbs to the poor. And they will launch their judiciary combat drones at windmills to promote their populist agenda.

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

3 years

When we were classifying country (“cross-border”) risk in the 80s, we found that countries whose names started with a Z (Zaire, Zambia, Zimbabwe) were the highest risk on the scale. On the occasion of our Independence Day, it may be appropriate to change our name to Zebanon.

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

2 years

Every policy action has consequences. Rarefying the LBP banknotes and flooding the market with $ - to temporarily force the $ rate down - will also lead to an increasing Lira/ #Bira differential, and to a $500m/mth drop in reserves. Which, over time, will make any Plan unworkable.

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

9 months

People don’t want to know the inconvenient truth. They yearn to hear the comforting lies that validate their delusions. And as we reach the point of no-return, it’s time to remember Ayn Rand: “you can ignore reality, but you cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality”.

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

3 years

“In the end, we will remember not the words of our enemies, but the silence of our friends.” Martin Luther King Jr.

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

3 years

@OmarTamo19 As a side result, we now have an additional exchange rate in between the 3900 (151) and the 12000 (158). That makes it now six rates - times two because of the LBP cash to check differential. A new world record after the largest hummus dish.

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

2 years

Real estate prices in real $ terms in Lebanon may be (slightly) on the upside. It’s not because the situation is improving. It’s because the Lebanese diaspora, which used to invest its money in Lebanese banks and cannot place it abroad, has few other alternatives. 1/2

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

8 months

There’s something wrong with me. Is this normal? (Schadenfreude?) I’m finding myself hoping that we don’t find any gas - at least not now. That’s because any profit that will be generated is likely to only benefit those in power. The people will get nothing, gas or no gas.

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

3 years

From @hanihassan26 Simply Brilliant!!!

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

3 years

There exist realistic solutions to protect small depositors. One inevitable component is a capital control law that would temporarily restrict outflows. That law was badly needed a year ago. It’s still badly needed today. The delay is only benefiting those who are causing it.

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

3 years

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

2 years

We, Lebanese people, are funny. We celebrate when the parallel $ rate falls, but we get upset when it reaches, or falls below, the Sayrafa rate (!) —because it prevents us from round-tripping our $ and arbitraging between the parallel and Sayrafa rate. We’re very funny people.

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

3 years

I’m being a party pooper, again. There is a bad income redistribution project, camouflaging as a good, socialist scheme, ready to be rolled out. But at $400/mo. per depositor, the money will only last a few months, possibly until next elections, before the piggy bank is empty.

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

1 year

This won’t be popular, but it’s reality. In the Sayrafa/161 round-tripping scheme/scam, Robin Hood steals money from the “old rich” (now the “new poor”), ie the depositors, to subsidize the “even poorer”, ie the civil servants - plus some friendly speculators along the way. 1/2

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

1 year

The biggest but most credible lies start with a hint of truth, to which you add vast amounts of unadulterated lies, deception and disinformation to create your fake narrative. The Russians are masters at that. But the Lebanese, individually or institutionally, are not far behind.

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

8 months

Intolerance is intolerable. We need more courageous MPs, like @DaouMark @OkaisGeorge or @EliasHankach

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

1 year

Multiple exchange rates are not by accident. They are part of a plan to further dilapidate and redistribute wealth. They open the door to arbitrage and to the arbitrary. The Sayrafa multiple-rate round-tripping scam is the perfect example of piecemeal panic as policy.

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

1 year

The dilapidation of the deposits is a tragic form of income redistribution. Money was stolen from the savers/depositors, mostly the middle class, and redistributed to the spenders/borrowers, at both end of the scale (bailing out civil servants, as well as any leveraged business).

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

9 months

Why does everyone want to do everyone else’s job but their own? Should a judge prepare a restructuring plan? Should the parliament take executive decisions? Should the Central Bank manage fiscal policy and subsidies? Should my wife give me orders? (Answers: no; no; no; no; yes.)

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

1 year

I don’t know if EDL’s letter asking clients to now pay their bills in “fresh LBP” is real or if it’s a fake. But if it’s real, this will be the first-ever instance of a government entity refusing the get paid in its own legal tender by transfers cleared thru its own central bank.

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

3 years

What’s the probability that today’s demonstrations against the investigation will turn violent? And if they do, what’s the probability that security forces will repress them as violently as they did when people were demanding justice for August 4?

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

10 months

My personal, and likely unpopular, opinion on “the question of the default”. It’s 3-page long, sorry, but there’s a summary that follows. 0/3

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

3 years

LL 1/4: There are talks that Lirafication may be the panacea. It is not. It’s just our government panicking. Under duress, they may Lirafy ALL our Lollars. Or they may freeze and do nothing. Which will shrink the value of our Lollars below their 35 cents current price. Lose-lose.

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

3 years

I’m wondering whether those things happen only in Lebanon. Whenever we have a deadline, be it for garbage dumps or electricity for instance, we wait for the deadline date and then we ask for a one week extension. If it’s just one week we need, why not before the deadline?

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

3 years

Better have a Capital Control law earlier rather than later. Better have a CC law later than none at all. Better have an intelligent CC law rather than a stupid one. Better have a stupid CC law than none at all. All 4 sentences are true. Except perhaps the last one.

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

3 years

KYK 2.2: ...The banks placed money with BDL to make money (and where else to place it)? Large depositors placed money with banks to earn high interest. Small depositors piggy-backed and benefited from the peg. We lived beyond our means. Waking up will hurt. It does already.

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

1 year

The good news is that we’ve just combined 3 rates: the 1,500 official rate; the 8,000 151 rate; the 12,000 158 rate. All are now at 15,000. The bad news is that we now have 3 Sayafa rates: the public sector at 38,000; the private sector at 42,000; and EDL rate of “Sayrafa +20%”.

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

7 months

People can choose to believe what they want, but their beliefs have consequences. If we choose not to believe the IMF, but prefer to trust the vast majority of the political class that we voted for (because we love populist tales), we will have to bear the consequences. 1/2

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

3 years

I’ll put things simply. If: private sector $ borrowers repaid the banks the REAL $ they got in REAL $; then: the banks could repay about 50% of the REAL $ they got from depositors in REAL $ as well. (Assuming $ loans are 50% of the $ deposits.) I know. The sentence is confusing.

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

1 year

And they all love Robin Hood, he is the Savior. Everyone wants in. I can’t blame them, the State is absent. But why is Robin Hood doing this? Empathy with the poorest, or to buy protection for himself with other peoples money? Let’s call a fraud a fraud: Sayrafa is a fraud. 2/2

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

2 years

The never-ending Judiciary vs. Monetary authorities show is looking more and more like a Tom and Jerry cartoon.

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

11 months

We are ruled by “serial liars”, who lie to the people by telling them just what they want to hear. They know this is the best way to buy the people’s votes, loyalty and love. In the end, people have the rulers they deserve. We chose them because they look like us.

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

2 years

Unification is not multiplication. Unification of FX rates cannot be achieved by adding a new rate that just happens to fall in between the dozen rates we have. It cannot be achieved either by issuing decrees or circulars and doing nothing else. It is amateurish improvisation.

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

10 months

The issue the 4 BDL VGs face is difficult, which may explain their rather awkward letter. Take Sayrafa for instance. The right thing to do is to free the FX rate, dump the Sayrafa scam, and stop printing LBP. Unless they do it, we will continue to waste precious FX reserves. 1/3

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

2 years

The ABL has issued another irrelevant statement, approved by a majority of its members, restating their existing position that “the State has sufficient resources” to cover the gap. Actually, it doesn’t, and this is the problem. 1/2

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

3 years

I always find exceptional stuff on @SamiLeba2 ‘s page! Here’s a great quote from Ayn Rand: “You can ignore reality, but you cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.”

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

9 months

Will they or won’t they have the courage to dump the Sayrafa scam over the next 2-3 months? And no, they don’t need $200m a month to ween us out from this scam. A fraction of that will be enough - and they don’t need anyone’s permission to dump it.

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

3 years

@AlbertKostanian What an outstanding show! The solutions are clear, but it’s also clear that leaders are scared to take the inevitable unpopular decisions. And what a great idea to bring the Cyprus FM to show us the path!

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

1 year

Two courageous MPs decided to stay in parliament until a president gets elected. They now live, sleep and eat there since weeks. They got half-hearted support from some of their peers and civil society. But in fact, they’ve been abandoned and are on their own. And no one cares.

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

1 year

A systemic problem can only be resolved by a systemic solution. The piecemeal approach doesn’t work. It is clear that not a single Lebanese commercial bank can pay back its depositors in real $. NOT ONE. Therefore, the State should take a clear, systemwide decision. 1/3

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

11 months

Conclusions from the last few days: 1. Crime pays. 2. Lies work. 3a. People can always be bought… 3b. … With lies or with money. 4. This will not end well.

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

1 year

In the latest scam and Ponzi called ‘Sayrafa’, some make money at the expense of others. And everyone who’s not in wants in. Many banks are helping because they make money. It’s the usual combo of stupidity and cupidity. But this time, they can’t claim they didn’t know.

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

3 years

Sub 3/3: So here is the problem. Maintaining subsidies in their current form is costly and unsustainable. There is a plan to prolong their shelf-life by dipping into the banks’ legal reserves. Those reserves are “real” remnants from depositors’ money. Do not let it happen.

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

1 year

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

2 years

This means that the most that armed people could “steal” (as in “stealing” your own money) from ALL the vaults of ALL the banks is $400m. After that we can close the banks, relax, and let the State liquidate their assets as efficiently as it did Bank Intra’s (over 50 years). 2/2

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

9 months

My take on what will happen on July 31. The current Governor’s mandate will NOT be renewed. A new Governor will NOT be named. The first VG will take over the interim (which will last). But the opposition will now support this solution. As will everybody else. And everyone wins.

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

2 years

Ukraine?

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

1 year

Multiple FX (Sayrafa) rates create distortions and transfer wealth from some people to other people. The parallel $ rate is LL 97,000; the Private Sector Sayrafa LL 86,500; the EDL Sayrafa (presumably) LL 104,000; and the Public Sector salary-Sayrafa LL 60,000. 1/1

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

2 years

Economic Plans are like Peace plans. Each new plan is tougher than the one before. And we will always regret the opportunities we missed: Lazard, Batpeople, Chami, now the IMF plan. But as always, we will ensure that we miss the next one - which we will come to regret later. 1/2

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

1 year

The fresh vs local dollar is an aberration, born out of necessity (as real $ were spent/wasted mostly between the peg and the subsidies). The fresh vs bank lira (aka lira vs bira) is also an aberration, born NOT of necessity, but as a result of short-sightedness and incompetence.

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

3 years

I am reassured. Things are under control. “They” know what to do. “They” will protect us. “They” are here for us. “They” have a plan. “They” can see the big picture; we can’t. The world is impressed by “their” resilience and success. Everything will be okay in the end.*

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

8 months

Exceptional - and extremely courageous - from Saade Chami!

‏الشامي: هل لدينا رفاهية الانتظار كل هذا الوقت؟

صدر عن مكتب نائب رئيس حكومة تصريف الأعمال سعادة الشامي البيان الآتي:"إن الأسباب المتداولة للتأخير في دراسة مشاريع القوانين الإصلاحية المرسلة من الحكومة إلى مجلس النواب هي، وللأسف، نوع من تقاذف...

www.mtv.com.lb

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

2 years

I was reminded me how beautiful Lebanese women are. But many look alike: light hair, snub nose, full lips. Makes you wonder whether they all share the same father. Or the same plastic surgeon. Hint: ladies, you’re only impressing other women; men like everything (we’re easy).

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

1 year

One question is: who allowed BDL to take over fiscal policy and provide a 60% indirect salary increases to civil servants? Another is: who allowed BDL to fund that increase from what remains of the depositors money? And finally: why are so many people supporting this scam? 2/2

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

1 year

@Mouniryouniss Revolutions are done by the middle class. That class has been obliterated. Forgive the generalization, but: when you’re poor, your priority is to survive and feed your children; and when you’re wealthy, you find ways to accommodate (or benefit). Lebanon may not see a revolution.

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

1 year

If Pinocchio tells you that he gave you more money than you gave him, then shouldn’t you ask how come he still owes you tons of money?

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

3 years

This tweet is turning like my Laila Abdullatif moment. It’s all happening as predicted. There’s no future in banking, so I’m recycling myself into fortune telling.

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

8 months

Freedom of the press is precious. It must be respected and protected. But disinformation is not free speech. It must be rejected and prosecuted.

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

2 years

@henrichaoul @CarolAyat1 @ifi_aub @KullunaIrada @LIFE_Lebanon @IMFNews @WorldBank @LOGI_Lebanon @CarolAyat1 solution is absolutely brilliant. It covers ALL the angles. But it has one “drawback”that makes it a very hard sell to the authorities: it prevents leakages and under the table kickbacks. So all who profited from the sector’s inefficiencies will fight it to the death.

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Michel Accad

@AccadMichel

2 years

Populism buys votes. And if/when your votes bring back the same people you picked the last time around, then you know that you have the leaders that you deserve. We reap what we sow.

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